“-That concludes the report.”
The usually confident and subtly smiling Sophia was nowhere to be seen. Instead, she relayed the concerning information with an exceptionally professional demeanor. Though there were some mismatches here and there, the level of detail she provided was more than sufficient. Given the difficulty of obtaining such intelligence, especially in contrast to the modern era, her ability was truly remarkable.
Now, it was up to this side to analyze the details and uncover the full picture.
The first point of interest was Murad’s actions during the suppression of the Bulgarian uprising. Using overworked slaves, unarmed and scarred, masked and sent to ambush the enemy’s rear—was it to instill terror in the opposition? Certainly, the Bulgarian rebels were no more than untrained peasants. The sudden appearance of those frightening slaves would have undoubtedly struck fear into them.
Even more notable was the fact that while the slaves were deployed, Murad’s main force only continued marching without engaging the enemy. If he had aimed for gradual destruction, the task would have been far easier. So why had he deliberately allowed time for the rebels to regroup? The reasoning seemed clear. Going around and fighting each group to rescue isolated allies trapped by the rebellion’s forces would have taken far too long. Instead, threatening the enemy into withdrawing on their own was the faster option.
But such tactics were typically for those pressed for time.
Murad, who had taken the defender’s position, had no apparent reason to act with such urgency. What was clear was that he had orchestrated events so the rebels would gather into a single force rather than scatter and engage in guerrilla warfare.
As a result, the rebels lost their sole advantage—guerrilla tactics. It was likely done to prevent disruptions to his rear, but it didn’t fully explain why Murad acted so hastily.
To uncover that reason, it was necessary to look at the broader battlefield.
Mustafa’s army, which had marched south along the Danube, was both an expeditionary force and one with clear limitations as a foreign army. This made it easier for the Bey’s forces to mount a stronger resistance. A civil war differs greatly from a conflict involving a revolt backed by foreign powers.
In a civil war, the enemy is your own kin, but in a rebellion’s army, the troops are often foreigners. Such an army is bound to lack trust among its members, especially one acquired through the schemes of the Empire and Venice.
Considering this, it became clear why Mustafa hastily moved south without fully crushing the Bey’s forces. It also clarified why Murad chose to draw all the rebels together and crush them in one blow instead of dividing and defeating them bit by bit. To solidify these assumptions, Sophia’s insight was needed.
“Sophia, have there been any unusual movements along the Anatolian coast during this time?”
“It didn’t seem particularly important to this war… but then again, Your Majesty might see it differently. As you suspect, there was something. The Ottoman galleys stationed along the Anatolian coast were hastily preparing for departure. However, the odd thing is that there were no other notable military actions in Anatolia besides this.”
“So, they hurriedly prepared to sail… without troops to transport?”
“That’s why I initially dismissed it as insignificant.”
Before I realized it, my body was trembling uncontrollably, and I shot up from my seat. My mind went blank, utterly white. Then, as if the strength in my legs gave out, I collapsed back into my chair.
That was it. From the signs of the Anatolian coastal fleet’s abnormal movements, I could now understand why Mustafa hastened his march south and why Murad chose to display a calculated threat to his enemy.
Murad must have known that Venice would support Mustafa. The Anatolian coast was more influenced by Genoa than Venice, making it far harder to gather intelligence there. It would have been nearly impossible to grasp all the military movements happening in Anatolia, let alone uncover the fleet’s activity. The fact that Murad managed to detect the fleet’s movements was astonishing. However, his failure to anticipate that the enemy might exploit this knowledge was a fatal mistake.
Fearing that even the Anatolian forces might join the battle, Mustafa likely prioritized ending the succession dispute by overthrowing the sultan rather than focusing on the Bey’s forces. Meanwhile, Murad had successfully rescued the Bey, who was on the brink of annihilation, simply by ordering the coastal fleet to lift anchor. This maneuver drew Mustafa deeper into his trap.
Considering the time it would take for orders to reach, Murad must have sent instructions to the Anatolian coastal fleet on the very day he began his advance into Bulgaria.
Even the swift suppression of the Bulgarian rebels served a purpose: to aid Mustafa’s advance southward. If the rebellion had persisted, Mustafa might have acted more cautiously. Knowing the overwhelming difference in the quality of soldiers and the skill of the officers, Murad could afford such a bold gamble and still secure an easy victory.
For Mustafa, who feared the joining of Anatolian forces, there were no other options. In the inevitable clash between the two armies, Mustafa’s leadership likely would not have been decisive. After all, how many foreign troops, already distrustful of their commander, would follow the orders of a general who had previously led them to defeat? Whatever military talent Mustafa possessed, it was overshadowed by the profound lack of trust in his leadership.
“…Is this the kind of opponent I must face?”
My vision darkened. For once, Sophia, in a rare display of concern, broke the silence with a question.
“Get a hold of yourself. Murad’s forces will soon march toward this place. Do you really have time to be lost in thought?”
“…No.”
The more I contemplated Murad’s actions, the more certain I became.
“…You don’t believe Murad will invade Morea? Is that your assessment?”
“Murad isn’t heading for Morea… He’s heading for Constantinople.”
And this certainty wasn’t because of Constantinople’s symbolic significance. Murad would besiege Constantinople to assert his dominance.
“Why? Why would you think that?”
“Because there’s far more to gain.”
“…From a crumbling capital of a millennium-old empire?”
“If he can secure both justification and tangible benefits, heading for Constantinople is the logical choice.”
By besieging Constantinople, Murad would apply immense pressure on the capital. In its desperation, the capital would inevitably request reinforcements from Morea. And if that request came, Morea would be cornered.
Refusing the request would be akin to declaring independence from the empire. But if Morea complied with the request, Morea would lose its status as the “Ottoman ally” that shielded Central Greece from Ottoman incursions.
On the other hand, if Morea acted on the request, it would likely be forced to fight in hostile territory—or worse, on ground carefully chosen by the enemy—rather than on the Peloponnesian Peninsula, which had always been assumed as the main battleground. The narrow passages and rugged terrain that allowed a smaller force to stall the Ottomans would no longer serve any purpose.
A shiver ran down my spine. And then another.
Could I really defeat Murad?
